Model Results & Accountability

Every published fair line, graded against the actual final score. Wins and misses both. Most pick sites hide this page; we built the site around it.

44 games graded
Model line closer: 19 (45%)
Market closer: 23
Flagged 2+ pt edges: 8-16-0 ATS

Model line closer = our fair spread landed nearer the actual margin than the market line. ATS record applies only to games we flagged at 2+ points of disagreement - the flags you would have seen published before kickoff. Small samples are noisy; this page exists so the model's misses stay public.

Recent graded games

DateGameFinalOur lineBookFlag result
2026-11-01Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills10-36-7.8-3.0HIT
2026-11-01Tennessee Titans at Cincinnati Bengals36-43-16.0-13.5MISS
2026-11-01Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys33-30-9.4-7.0MISS
2026-11-01Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions15-19-1.1-3.0not flagged
2026-11-01Las Vegas Raiders at New York Jets38-33-2.4-1.5not flagged
2026-11-01Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers6-27-3.6-3.5not flagged
2026-11-01Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers0-16-1.8-1.5not flagged
2026-11-01Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars7-42-13.1-10.0HIT
2026-11-01Los Angeles Chargers at Los Angeles Rams9-24-15.0-6.0HIT
2026-11-01Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos24-28-5.2+1.5HIT
2026-11-01New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins24-19+7.2+7.0not flagged
2026-10-25Pittsburgh Steelers at New Orleans Saints16-10-0.0+3.0MISS
2026-10-25San Francisco 49ers at Atlanta Falcons20-29+5.3+2.5MISS
2026-10-25Cleveland Browns at Tennessee Titans27-24+3.5+2.5not flagged
2026-10-25Indianapolis Colts at Minnesota Vikings10-16-14.1-6.5MISS
2026-10-25Miami Dolphins at New York Jets28-25-9.9-4.5MISS
2026-10-25Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers43-13-10.0-3.0MISS
2026-10-25Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens35-13-4.7+1.5MISS
2026-10-25New York Giants at Houston Texans27-21+1.0-10.5HIT
2026-10-25Denver Broncos at Arizona Cardinals30-16+4.8+4.5not flagged
2026-10-25Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions17-20-4.1-3.0not flagged
2026-10-25Los Angeles Rams at Las Vegas Raiders35-21+0.1+3.0MISS
2026-10-18Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars34-31-11.5-2.5MISS
2026-10-18Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons31-23-3.0+1.5MISS
2026-10-18Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns10-13+4.1+3.5not flagged
2026-10-18Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts26-20-6.5-7.0not flagged
2026-10-18New York Jets at New England Patriots19-26-7.2-7.5not flagged
2026-10-18New Orleans Saints at New York Giants34-27-12.0+1.5MISS
2026-10-18Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles25-14+4.7+1.5HIT
2026-10-18Pittsburgh Steelers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers26-19-1.7+2.5MISS
2026-10-18Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams18-16-12.2-12.5not flagged
2026-10-18Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs6-22-14.2-8.5HIT
2026-10-18Buffalo Bills at Las Vegas Raiders33-30+4.5+5.5not flagged
2026-10-11Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers7-31+1.2+1.5not flagged
2026-10-11Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans26-3-3.4+7.0MISS
2026-10-11Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins31-24+6.2+7.0not flagged
2026-10-11Las Vegas Raiders at New England Patriots17-45-3.2-3.5not flagged
2026-10-11Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints23-13+2.5+2.5not flagged
2026-10-11Cleveland Browns at New York Jets12-17-0.1-2.5MISS
2026-10-11Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers22-34-3.9-3.0not flagged

How grading works

For each finished game we compare the actual home margin with (a) our fair line and (b) the market line captured before kickoff. The flagged-game ATS record grades the 2+ point disagreements the board highlighted. Lines move after publication, so treat this as a model audit, not a betting record.

No guarantees. Past performance never predicts future results. 21+ only, and please see our responsible gambling page.