NFL Model Picks & Fair Lines - Updated Daily
Free public view of the El Pluga Sports value scanner: every upcoming NFL game with our injury-adjusted Elo fair line compared against the sportsbook market. Tap any game for the full write-up, injury report and model-vs-market table.
The live scanner with every market (moneylines, spreads, totals, steam moves) is here - free member account required.
Current board
- Cincinnati Bengals at Atlanta Falcons · Sun Nov 08, 8:30 AM CT · model line +3.9 vs book +3.5 · edge -0.4
- Dallas Cowboys at Indianapolis Colts · Sun Nov 08, 12:00 PM CT · model line +3.2 vs book +4.5 · edge +1.3
- New York Jets at Kansas City Chiefs · Sun Nov 08, 12:00 PM CT · model line -9.3 vs book -9.5 · edge -0.2
- Detroit Lions at Miami Dolphins · Sun Nov 08, 12:00 PM CT · model line +10.2 vs book +6.5 · edge -3.7 MISPRICED
- Cleveland Browns at New Orleans Saints · Sun Nov 08, 12:00 PM CT · model line +1.0 vs book -3.5 · edge -4.5 MISPRICED
- New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles · Sun Nov 08, 12:00 PM CT · model line +9.9 vs book +3.0 · edge -6.9 MISPRICED
- Los Angeles Rams at Washington Commanders · Sun Nov 08, 12:00 PM CT · model line +4.6 vs book +4.5 · edge -0.1
- Denver Broncos at Carolina Panthers · Sun Nov 08, 12:00 PM CT · model line +3.2 vs book +3.0 · edge -0.2
- Houston Texans at Los Angeles Chargers · Sun Nov 08, 3:05 PM CT · model line +3.0 vs book +6.0 · edge +3.0 MISPRICED
- Green Bay Packers at New England Patriots · Sun Nov 08, 3:25 PM CT · model line -3.5 vs book -3.0 · edge +0.5
- Las Vegas Raiders at San Francisco 49ers · Sun Nov 08, 3:25 PM CT · model line -9.8 vs book -10.0 · edge -0.2
- Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks · Sun Nov 08, 3:25 PM CT · model line -9.2 vs book -8.5 · edge +0.7
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Chicago Bears · Sun Nov 08, 7:20 PM CT · model line -7.5 vs book -6.0 · edge +1.5
- Buffalo Bills at Minnesota Vikings · Mon Nov 09, 7:15 PM CT · model line +1.0 vs book +3.0 · edge +2.0 MISPRICED
- Washington Commanders at New York Giants · Thu Nov 12, 7:15 PM CT · model line -10.0 vs book -1.5 · edge +8.5 MISPRICED
How the model works
Each team carries an Elo-style power rating updated through the season. Home advantage and the current injury report adjust the rating, which converts to a fair point spread at roughly 22 rating points per point. When our fair spread differs from the market by 2+ points, the game is flagged as potentially mispriced. This is a statistical screen, not a guarantee.