NBA Model Picks & Fair Lines - Updated Daily

Free public view of the El Pluga Sports value scanner: every upcoming NBA game with our injury-adjusted Elo fair line compared against the sportsbook market. Tap any game for the full write-up, injury report and model-vs-market table.

The live scanner with every market (moneylines, spreads, totals, steam moves) is here - free member account required.

Current board

• Denver Nuggets at Indiana Pacers · Sat Nov 07, 4:00 PM CT · model line +11.1 vs book +8.5 · edge -2.6 MISPRICED
• Brooklyn Nets at Atlanta Hawks · Sat Nov 07, 6:30 PM CT · model line -13.3 vs book -7.5 · edge +5.8 MISPRICED
• New York Knicks at Cleveland Cavaliers · Sat Nov 07, 7:00 PM CT · model line +1.0 vs book +5.5 · edge +4.5 MISPRICED
• Washington Wizards at Oklahoma City Thunder · Sat Nov 07, 7:00 PM CT · model line -17.0 vs book -12.5 · edge +4.5 MISPRICED
• Orlando Magic at Golden State Warriors · Sat Nov 07, 7:30 PM CT · model line -6.5 vs book -5.5 · edge +1.0
• Houston Rockets at Phoenix Suns · Sat Nov 07, 8:00 PM CT · model line +13.3 vs book +6.5 · edge -6.8 MISPRICED
• San Antonio Spurs at Portland Trail Blazers · Sat Nov 07, 9:00 PM CT · model line +0.8 vs book +5.5 · edge +4.7 MISPRICED
• Philadelphia 76ers at Chicago Bulls · Sun Nov 08, 2:30 PM CT · model line +12.5 vs book — · edge —
• Los Angeles Lakers at Detroit Pistons · Sun Nov 08, 5:00 PM CT · model line -12.3 vs book — · edge —
• Utah Jazz at Minnesota Timberwolves · Sun Nov 08, 6:00 PM CT · model line -20.2 vs book — · edge —
• Brooklyn Nets at Dallas Mavericks · Sun Nov 08, 6:30 PM CT · model line -9.1 vs book — · edge —
• Boston Celtics at Milwaukee Bucks · Sun Nov 08, 7:00 PM CT · model line +21.5 vs book — · edge —
• New Orleans Pelicans at LA Clippers · Sun Nov 08, 8:00 PM CT · model line -0.7 vs book — · edge —
• Miami Heat at Sacramento Kings · Sun Nov 08, 8:00 PM CT · model line +9.1 vs book — · edge —
• Los Angeles Lakers at Atlanta Hawks · Mon Nov 09, 6:00 PM CT · model line -0.6 vs book — · edge —
• Cleveland Cavaliers at Charlotte Hornets · Mon Nov 09, 6:00 PM CT · model line +5.3 vs book — · edge —
• Washington Wizards at Detroit Pistons · Mon Nov 09, 6:00 PM CT · model line -22.6 vs book — · edge —
• Memphis Grizzlies at Toronto Raptors · Mon Nov 09, 6:30 PM CT · model line -5.5 vs book — · edge —
• Indiana Pacers at Dallas Mavericks · Mon Nov 09, 7:00 PM CT · model line -11.6 vs book — · edge —
• Denver Nuggets at Houston Rockets · Mon Nov 09, 7:30 PM CT · model line -13.0 vs book — · edge —
• San Antonio Spurs at Phoenix Suns · Mon Nov 09, 8:00 PM CT · model line +10.7 vs book — · edge —
• New Orleans Pelicans at Golden State Warriors · Mon Nov 09, 9:00 PM CT · model line -8.6 vs book — · edge —
• Milwaukee Bucks at New York Knicks · Tue Nov 10, 6:30 PM CT · model line -22.8 vs book — · edge —
• Boston Celtics at Philadelphia 76ers · Tue Nov 10, 7:00 PM CT · model line +0.7 vs book — · edge —
• LA Clippers at Phoenix Suns · Tue Nov 10, 8:00 PM CT · model line -2.8 vs book — · edge —
• Miami Heat at Utah Jazz · Tue Nov 10, 8:00 PM CT · model line +9.1 vs book — · edge —
• Orlando Magic at Sacramento Kings · Tue Nov 10, 9:00 PM CT · model line +8.8 vs book — · edge —
• Oklahoma City Thunder at Portland Trail Blazers · Tue Nov 10, 10:00 PM CT · model line -1.9 vs book — · edge —
• Washington Wizards at Indiana Pacers · Wed Nov 11, 6:00 PM CT · model line +1.9 vs book — · edge —
• Cleveland Cavaliers at New York Knicks · Wed Nov 11, 6:00 PM CT · model line -6.9 vs book — · edge —
• Boston Celtics at Toronto Raptors · Wed Nov 11, 6:00 PM CT · model line +5.7 vs book — · edge —
• San Antonio Spurs at Chicago Bulls · Wed Nov 11, 7:00 PM CT · model line +14.2 vs book — · edge —
• Denver Nuggets at Memphis Grizzlies · Wed Nov 11, 7:00 PM CT · model line -1.1 vs book — · edge —
• Los Angeles Lakers at Milwaukee Bucks · Wed Nov 11, 7:00 PM CT · model line +13.2 vs book — · edge —
• Brooklyn Nets at New Orleans Pelicans · Wed Nov 11, 7:00 PM CT · model line -10.7 vs book — · edge —
• Orlando Magic at Utah Jazz · Wed Nov 11, 8:00 PM CT · model line +8.9 vs book — · edge —
• Golden State Warriors at Houston Rockets · Wed Nov 11, 8:30 PM CT · model line -11.1 vs book — · edge —
• Oklahoma City Thunder at Portland Trail Blazers · Wed Nov 11, 9:00 PM CT · model line -1.9 vs book — · edge —
• Toronto Raptors at Philadelphia 76ers · Thu Nov 12, 6:00 PM CT · model line -8.0 vs book — · edge —
• Detroit Pistons at Washington Wizards · Thu Nov 12, 6:00 PM CT · model line +16.7 vs book — · edge —
• Dallas Mavericks at Minnesota Timberwolves · Thu Nov 12, 7:00 PM CT · model line -12.2 vs book — · edge —
• Charlotte Hornets at Phoenix Suns · Thu Nov 12, 8:00 PM CT · model line -4.1 vs book — · edge —
• New York Knicks at Indiana Pacers · Fri Nov 13, 6:00 PM CT · model line +15.9 vs book — · edge —
• Milwaukee Bucks at Orlando Magic · Fri Nov 13, 6:00 PM CT · model line -16.3 vs book — · edge —
• Cleveland Cavaliers at Miami Heat · Fri Nov 13, 7:00 PM CT · model line -0.7 vs book — · edge —
• Atlanta Hawks at Chicago Bulls · Fri Nov 13, 7:00 PM CT · model line +5.5 vs book — · edge —
• Memphis Grizzlies at New Orleans Pelicans · Fri Nov 13, 7:00 PM CT · model line -1.0 vs book — · edge —
• Utah Jazz at Houston Rockets · Fri Nov 13, 7:30 PM CT · model line -26.5 vs book — · edge —
• Golden State Warriors at San Antonio Spurs · Fri Nov 13, 8:30 PM CT · model line -8.6 vs book — · edge —
• Portland Trail Blazers at Sacramento Kings · Fri Nov 13, 9:00 PM CT · model line +14.2 vs book — · edge —
• Oklahoma City Thunder at LA Clippers · Fri Nov 13, 9:30 PM CT · model line +7.9 vs book — · edge —

How the model works

Each team carries an Elo-style power rating updated through the season. Home advantage and the current injury report adjust the rating, which converts to a fair point spread at roughly 22 rating points per point. When our fair spread differs from the market by 2+ points, the game is flagged as potentially mispriced. This is a statistical screen, not a guarantee.